Monday, May 12, 2008

because I'm obsessive

I went and looked at the data for 20 available sucessful 3dt FET cycles.

Here's the testing stats I obsessively collected (parenthesis containing if that was their first test or when their last bfn test was):
~ 4 = BFP on 7dpt
~ 2 = BFP on 8dpt (1 - 1st test, 1 bfn @ 7dpt)
~ 2 = BFP on 9dpt (1 - 1st test, 1 bfn @ 8dpt)
~ 8 = BFP on 10dpt (1 - 1st test, 1 bfn @ 5dpt, 2 bfn @ 7dpt, 4 bfn @ 9dpt)
~ 3 = BFP on 12dpt (2 bfn @ 10dpt, 1 bfn @ 11dpt)
~ 1 = BFP on 14dpt (1 bfn @ 12dpt)

Doing the math thing:
~ 20% got a BFP by 7dpt
~ 10% got a BFP at 8dpt
~ 10% got a BFP at 9dpt
~ 40% got a BFP at 10dpt
~ 15% got a BFP at 12dpt
~ 5% got a BFP at 14dpt

A whole 65% of these ladies had a negative the day (or so) before their BFP!

So, bucking all I learned about statistics ... if I am somehow pregnant from this cycle, I only had a 20% chance of it showing by today. A full 80% of BFPs showed after today!

Okay, so I'm going to take this and run with it. I'm tired of feeling all defeated (even though I could just be putting off the inevitable)

8 comments:

Monica Fayth said...

yay! You're still in it :)

Duck said...

wow, love the obsessive stats making, reminds me of me. You're still in the game.

JamieD said...

Yay for statistics!

Rachel Inbar said...

I can imagine myself being obsessive like that... good thing there was no internet when I was doing IVF (well, except the last time, but that was a total disaster).

Wordgirl said...

You are wonderful -- I love statistics -- but I'm notoriously bad with them..

though I've been quiet lately I'm following your journey avidly and though I'm not generally a prayer kind of gal -- I'm sending out my own form of prayers that this is the cycle for you.

Xo

Pam

Kaci said...

I know BFNs suck, but I thought you were still in it statistically. I actually kept meaning to find the statistics so I could post them to you...does that make me a crazy obsessed stalker? Hopefully one or two of those little ones are getting tucked in nice.

Sarah R said...

I'm glad you decided to look at the statistics! :) I check your blog as soon as I get to work to see if anything is new.

Christy said...

Hey Nancy--
I did a 5dt but I got BFN at 5dpt (which I guess would be like 10dpo) and then the next day got my BFP (at 6dpt which is 11dpo). And that day it was so light, I probably would have missed it had I not been an obsessive POAS'er that looks at the stick under every possible light and angle.
So hang in there-- it is still early and you are still in the game!!