I went and looked at the data for 20 available sucessful 3dt FET cycles.
Here's the testing stats I obsessively collected (parenthesis containing if that was their first test or when their last bfn test was):
~ 4 = BFP on 7dpt
~ 2 = BFP on 8dpt (1 - 1st test, 1 bfn @ 7dpt)
~ 2 = BFP on 9dpt (1 - 1st test, 1 bfn @ 8dpt)
~ 8 = BFP on 10dpt (1 - 1st test, 1 bfn @ 5dpt, 2 bfn @ 7dpt, 4 bfn @ 9dpt)
~ 3 = BFP on 12dpt (2 bfn @ 10dpt, 1 bfn @ 11dpt)
~ 1 = BFP on 14dpt (1 bfn @ 12dpt)
Doing the math thing:
~ 20% got a BFP by 7dpt
~ 10% got a BFP at 8dpt
~ 10% got a BFP at 9dpt
~ 40% got a BFP at 10dpt
~ 15% got a BFP at 12dpt
~ 5% got a BFP at 14dpt
A whole 65% of these ladies had a negative the day (or so) before their BFP!
So, bucking all I learned about statistics ... if I am somehow pregnant from this cycle, I only had a 20% chance of it showing by today. A full 80% of BFPs showed after today!
Okay, so I'm going to take this and run with it. I'm tired of feeling all defeated (even though I could just be putting off the inevitable)
... Once (and still) Infertile, but still Schnarky as hell. This blog is dedicated to the daily ramblings from the mind of Nancy. It isn't about anything profound in the grand scheme of things, but it ~is~ about things in my life, schnarkiness always included. I have a second blog, listed in my profile, but the blogs will continue to remain separate.
"I'm aiming for heaven, but I'll probably wind up down in hell"
About Me
- nancy
- I am a 39 year old woman. I am the mother of two beautiful daughters and a handsome son. I am a career woman. As for my TTC world, it certainly doesn't seem like I am "infertile", but I fought for my pregnancies and my TTC/IF history is on the sidebar. I have two blogs, which are both listed in my profile. One focuses on my daily life - including IF, TTC, pregnancy, delivery and even some "children mentioned" posts. The second blog is ~soley~ posts directly about being the mother to my three children.
Belly Pics for #3 only.
Click stick figure to see the consecutive pictures from this pregnancy only.
My TTC History
- Jul 01 ~ married
- Jan 02 ~ First cycle off bcps and opk shows ovulation!
- Dec 02 ~ Went to pcp for RE referral
- Jan 03 ~ Testing commences. S/A perfect. HSG clear.
- Feb 03 ~ Lap #1. All clear.
- Apr 03 ~ Clomid cycle #1. BFN.
- May 03 ~ Clomid cycle #2. BFN.
- Jun 03 ~ Clomid cycle #3. BFN.
- Jul 03 ~ Supposed to be IUI#1, but we missed cd3 so natural cycle
- Aug 03 ~ BFP on C18.
- Apr 04 ~ Ella born.
- Oct 04 ~ decided to ttc #2 and went off minipill to see if I am ovulating. I am. Will start next month.
- Nov 04 ~ TTC#2 starts. BFP. Holy Crap. No freaking way. No way.
- Aug 05 ~ Allison born
- Oct 06 ~ IUD removed. TTC#3
- Jan 07 ~ Large cysts found.
- Feb 07 ~ Femara cyle #1
- Mar 07 ~ Started w/ RE. HSG #2 showed R tube blocked. S/A normal.
- Mar 07 ~ more cysts, up to 9cms.
- Apr 07 ~ more cysts, 3 @ 7-9cms.
- May 07 ~ IUI #1 cancelled due to more cysts
- Jun 07 ~ IUI #1 (take two) w/ Clomid. BFN.
- Jul 07 ~ HSS showed scar tissue in 70% of uterus. Diagnosed with Asherman's Syndrome. Uterine surgery #2
- Aug 07 ~ HSG #3 showed clear tubes.
- Aug 07 ~ IUI #2 w/ Femara. BFN.
- Sept 07 ~ Monitored w/ hCG trigger. BFN.
- Oct 07 ~ HSS #2 showed scar tissue in 30% of uterus. Uterine surgery #3.
- Dec 07 ~ HSS #3 showed tiny amount of scar tissue. Uterine surgery #4.
- Jan 08 ~ HSS #4 showed clear uterus.
- Jan 08 ~ IUI #3, C16. BFN.
- Mar 08 ~ IVF #1, Transfer Cancelled due to lining. Out of 15 eggs, 9 were mature and all 9 fertilized. I have named my 9 embryos "The Mod Squad" and they are in the freezer, waiting for mommy to be ready.
- Apr/May 08 ~ FET #1. C20. 4 embryos "The Fab Four" transferred on 5/05. BFP!!! Very Low Beta (15 at 11dp3dt) but the numers continued to double every 48 hours. Told it was "most likely not viable" and later "most likely ectopic" but we beat all the odds.
- May 16, 08 ~ 11dp3dt (4w0d), beta #1: 15
- May 19, 08 ~ 14dp3dt (4w3d), beta #2: 43
- May 23, 08 ~ 18dp3dt (5w0d), beta#3: 213
- May 27, 22dp3dt (5w4d), beta #4: 1,073
- Jun 08 - Ultrasound showed one heartbeat at 7 weeks.
- Jul 08 - Had CVS testing. Chromosomes are normal and it's a BOY!! EDD: 1/23
- Aug 08 - Jan 09 ~ High risk due to: 1) Velamentous Cord Insertion, deemed biggest risk 2) Previous Placenta Accreta 3) Previous rapid degraged placenta 4) IVF alone can create weak placenta 5) AMA - Advanced Maternal Age. -- All resulting in almost 30 u/s and lots of testing, which ended up saving my life.
- Jan 09 (38w0d) ~ Karl is born! -- Crazy 3 days in hospital. Manual version to flip baby from breech to head down, Labor, Delivery, Emergency surgery due to cord detaching from placenta, Scary heart issues from losing over 40% of my blood supply, and then a blood transfusion due to the extreme loss of blood. Whew!
Blog Archive
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2008
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May
(37)
- Holy Schnikees.
- I'm like the boy who cried wolf.
- We'll know today.
- With all my being ...
- "Stay Positive"
- "60% chance of ectopic"
- Going in for Beta #3 (update 1)
- Scary Guy Pills, Part 2.
- What the hell?
- Scary Guy Pills
- How many?
- Double Bubble.
- blood drawn for beta #2
- I'm about to turn blue. - Updated w/ bfp progression
- Small update on 12dp3dt
- I'm still here!
- Beta in - It's low.
- Why does my digital pregnancy test on 11dp3dt (upd...
- It's a brand new day
- 9dp3dt
- 8dp3dt - still bfn.
- ah-hem.
- because I'm obsessive
- 7dp3dt (and a vent)
- Same on 6dp3dt
- 5dp3dt
- When can I start my POAS fest?
- Just call me Lumpy.
- 3dp3dt - Oh yes, this is going to continue.
- 2dp3dt
- Heavy post.
- The non eventful, non update.
- My embryos are superstars!!!
- I got "the call".
- Fertilization Report.
- I love me a big fat rollercoaster ride & girls who...
- I told them to thaw out The Mod Squad.
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May
(37)
8 comments:
yay! You're still in it :)
wow, love the obsessive stats making, reminds me of me. You're still in the game.
Yay for statistics!
I can imagine myself being obsessive like that... good thing there was no internet when I was doing IVF (well, except the last time, but that was a total disaster).
You are wonderful -- I love statistics -- but I'm notoriously bad with them..
though I've been quiet lately I'm following your journey avidly and though I'm not generally a prayer kind of gal -- I'm sending out my own form of prayers that this is the cycle for you.
Xo
Pam
I know BFNs suck, but I thought you were still in it statistically. I actually kept meaning to find the statistics so I could post them to you...does that make me a crazy obsessed stalker? Hopefully one or two of those little ones are getting tucked in nice.
I'm glad you decided to look at the statistics! :) I check your blog as soon as I get to work to see if anything is new.
Hey Nancy--
I did a 5dt but I got BFN at 5dpt (which I guess would be like 10dpo) and then the next day got my BFP (at 6dpt which is 11dpo). And that day it was so light, I probably would have missed it had I not been an obsessive POAS'er that looks at the stick under every possible light and angle.
So hang in there-- it is still early and you are still in the game!!
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